You've read about futures studies, speculative design and weak signals. Now it's time to get hands-on. In this lesson, you will build your first future scenario — an exercise you can do alone, in a group, or with your community. No special skills required: just curiosity, a sheet of paper and a pen (or a screen).
Step 1: Choose your time horizon and domain. How far ahead do you want to look? 5 years? 10? 30? The further, the more uncertain — and the more interesting. Also choose your scope: your city, your industry, the education system, healthcare, energy. Being specific helps: "the future of work in Italy in 2040" is better than "the future of humanity".
Step 2: Identify drivers of change. What is shaping the future of your domain? Look for factors in four categories: Technological (AI, automation, biotech), Economic (inequality, new business models), Social (demographics, values, cultural movements), Political (regulation, geopolitics, governance). List at least 8-10.
Step 3: Select two critical uncertainties. Among the drivers you've identified, choose two that are both important and uncertain — meaning they could go in very different directions. Example: "AI regulation" (strong vs weak) and "social cohesion" (high vs low). These become the axes of your 2x2 matrix.
Step 4: Build the matrix and name the four scenarios. The four quadrants of the matrix are your four scenarios. Give each one an evocative name — not "Scenario A", but something like "The Digital Hive" or "The Resilient Garden". The name should capture the essence of the world it describes.
Step 5: Develop the narrative. For each scenario, write a short story: what is daily life like in that world? Who has power? What are the problems? What are the opportunities? Don't try to be exhaustive: try to be vivid. One good concrete detail ("in the morning you check your carbon score before catching the bus") is worth more than ten generalisations.
Step 6: Identify implications. For each scenario, ask yourself: if this future materialised, what should I do today to prepare? What decisions do I need to make now? What capabilities do I need to develop? This is the moment when the scenario becomes a tool for action. You can also use NextHuman as a starting point: explore the events, the connections, and build your scenario around what you discover.